New Delhi, April 4:
The Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has
seriously underestimated the technological challenge of steering the
earth away from the dangers posed by climate change, three scientists
have claimed.
The IPCC is a UN scientific body tasked with evaluating the risk and
likely impacts of climate change through various scenarios that examine
how levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere might change in the coming years.
It has been projected that average temperature could rise by 1°C to
6°C during the 21st century, leading to a sea-level rise and
melting glaciers and affecting crops and health.
Now, Roger Pielke Jr at the University of Colorado, Boulder, and two
other experts have said the technological advances required to
stabilise carbon dioxide emissions might be far greater than what was
taken into account by the IPCC.
The IPCC assumptions for decarbonisation in the short term — between
2000 and 2010 — are “already inconsistent” with the recent evolution of
the global economy, the researchers said in a commentary that appeared
in the journal Nature yesterday.
All scenarios predict decreases in carbon intensity during 2000-10.
“But in recent years, both global energy intensity and carbon intensity
have risen, reversing the trend of previous decades,” Pielke and
co-authors Tom Wigley from the US National Centre for Atmospheric
Research and Christopher Green from Canada’s McGill University wrote.
The IPCC, headed by Rajendra Pachauri, shared the 2007 Nobel Peace
Prize with former US Vice-President Al Gore for their efforts to
disseminate knowledge about man-made climate change and laying
foundations to counter it.
Most emission scenarios predict a rapid decline in energy intensity —
more than 1 per cent a year. But the three researchers have said this
goal “may be neither realistic nor achievable”.
They argue that one reason for the rise in global energy and carbon
intensity is the economic transformation of developing countries,
particularly China and India. As development proceeds, rural
populations are likely to consume more energy and energy-intensive
materials, they said.
They said an analysis of China’s carbon dioxide emissions estimated
them to be rising at 11 to 13 per cent a year for 2000-10, higher than
the below 4.8 per cent Asian emissions, the scenarios predicted.
“The IPCC plays a risky game in assuming that spontaneous advances in
technological innovation will carry most of the burden of achieving
future reductions, rather than focusing on creating the conditions for
such innovations to occur,” the report said.
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