Politically the climate may not have
been right. After all, the future of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and
his UPA Government lay balanced on a knife’s edge as the Left parties
threatened to withdraw support if he went ahead with the Indo-US
civilian nuclear deal.
In many ways though the situation was quite similar to what the globe
confronted while dealing with rapid climate change: The tipping point
to disaster was fast approaching and the time to act was now. Or it
would be too late.
Putting on a brave face that masked much of the political turmoil, on
June 30 Manmohan released India’s most important statement on the
global warming crisis: the much-awaited National Action Plan on Climate
Change.
Worked on for over a year, the plan laid out eight critical missions or
thrust areas ranging from harnessing solar energy to saving the
Himalayan ecology.
These would help the country mitigate and if need be adapt to the
debilitating impact of climate change (see chart).
Global warming is caused by the accumulation of Green House Gases (GHG)
like carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere resulting in a rise
in the earth’s overall surface temperatures. Carbon dioxide is released
into the atmosphere when fossil fuel is burnt.
The emphasis of the report was on renewable energy and to considerably
lessen India’s dependence on fossil fuel-based options in the long run.
India also signalled to the world that it believed in an equitable and
fair approach to international climate change negotiations with the
prime minister stating that “every citizen of this planet must have an
equal share of the planetary atmospheric space”.
He renewed his pledge that India’s per capita GHG emissions will not
exceed that of developed countries.
It is important that India plays a lead in getting developed countries
to act because as a low latitude country, the subcontinent would face
much of the misery that climate change would wreak.
Rainfall pattern is expected to undergo a major change with areas like
Kerala, Madhya Pradesh and the Northeast getting less moisture.
There is also a major shift expected in the forest patterns with
India’s dense woods giving way to scrub jungle in many places. The
melting of the Himalayan glaciers could prove catastrophic for those
living downstream. (See graphic: Mission not impossible)
Worse, rising sea levels would inundate many of our coastal cities
forcing costly migrations. And extreme weather conditions like the
Mumbai downpour are expected to happen more frequently resulting in
loss of life and property.
So, is there much more that the country should be doing both
domestically and internationally for climate change?
DON'T LET IT END UP AS A WISH LIST
The answer is both yes and no. While the national action plan unveiled
is comprehensive and proactive in its approach, there is every danger
that much of it would remain on paper unless the various ministries
tasked to implement it act on it swiftly.
As R.K. Pachauri, chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) and a member of the Prime Minister’s Council on Climate
Change put it: “The key is that the various concerned ministries do
their homework well and come out with policies that can be translated
into action. Otherwise the plan would remain a statement of intent.”
Many of the non-governmental members of the Prime Minister’s Council
(including this author) emphasised working on targets and timetables to
execute the plan.
That’s because climate change plans the world over have a poor track
record where execution is concerned. Most developed countries, that had
made a commitment under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol to reduce their carbon
emissions by an average of 5 per cent compared to year 1990, have not
met their targets.
The US, the world’s biggest GHG emitter, pulled out completely from the
Protocol stating that unless developing countries like China and India
also commit to some mandatory emission cuts, it would not rejoin.
Since the Protocol runs its course by 2012, international negotiations
have begun for a new compact with even more stringent emission cuts.
Europe has taken the lead but the US is still on its favourite hobby
horse that India and China should also agree to mandatory emission
cuts.
There is again an attempt by developed countries to obfuscate their own
lapses and confuse responsibilities. Shyam Saran, the prime minister’s
special envoy on climate change, says: “The name of the game seems to
be to deflect attention from the key issue which is what the developed
countries are going to commit to in terms of cutting their own
emissions.”
The game is also about energy. Industrialised countries that had based
the growth of their economies on unlimited supply of fossil fuels are
in a quandary as oil becomes costly and the threat of global warming
grows.
Given that it is their combined emissions in the past 200 years that
has brought the earth’s climate to the brink of catastrophe, the onus
lies on these countries to clean up the atmosphere by significantly
reducing their emissions.
That means major re-tooling of many of their factories to make them
more energy efficient or a big shift to alternative fuels. It involves
huge capital costs that most countries have baulked at.
It also means getting their people to cut down their consumption levels
using disincentives and levying a heavy tax on carbon. Progress on that
count too has been unsatisfactory.
The strategy of developed countries has been to delay implementation of
a major global compact to reduce emission.
They make the right noises at international forums but when it comes to
walking their talk most don’t. Meanwhile, they are also busy trying to
divide the consensus among developing countries on issues of
responsibility.
Facts and figures
* 5% Expected rise in global surface temperature by
the end of the century.
* 25 billion tonne of carbon emissions need to be
cut to contain warming.
* 2012 The year when Kyoto Protocol to cut carbon
emissions expires.
* 55% of world’s carbon emissions is produced by 15%
of population.
* $380 billion is the likely cost in 2030 to 25
return world emissions to 2007 levels.
* 1% of India’s land area for solar power could meet
all its electricity needs.
* 605 million tonne emissions can be reduced if fuel
efficiency is improved.
* 10,000 MW of power would be saved if CFLs were
used for lighting homes in India.
* 1.5 million tonne of steel can be recovered yearly
through recycling
For India, the strategy would be to push developed countries into
making meaningful emission cuts. They could even join hands with China
and other weighty developing nations.
On its part, India will not agree to mandatory emission cuts as its per
capita GHG emissions is one of the lowest in the world (see chart) and
is 20 times less than that of the US.
But it is open to taking measures to mitigate the impact of climate
change that could result in reducing its GHG emissions. But the caveat
is that developed countries must ensure a verifiable and measurable
transfer of technology and finance to enable India to do so.
Implementing its national action plan would help India make its
arguments more convincing in crucial international negotiations.
MAKE A BIG SWITCH TO RENEWABLE ENERGY
India may have been under pressure from industrialised countries to
bring out a national action plan but if it did so it was largely
because it now regards pursuing an enlightened green policy as vital to
its own national interests.
As Sunita Narain of the Delhi-based Centre for Science and Environment,
says: “The plan offers no major solutions but it puts the issue into a
neat framework and lays down priorities. More importantly, it accepts
that what is good for the environment can also be good for development.”
India has made it clear that it would make no concession in its agendas
of poverty alleviation and economic development.
But in the action plan, there is now a conscious decision to shift
towards renewable forms of energy like solar, wind and nuclear to meet
its burgeoning energy needs.
That is critical because currently India is highly dependent on fossil
fuels for its energy requirements. Coal remains the dominant fuel in
India’s energy mix with a share of 31 per cent.
Petroleum products like oil and natural gas account for another 27 per
cent. With oil prices galloping, India’s import bill has shot up and
has contributed to much of the current bout of inflation.
In power generation, thermal or coal-based power meet as much as 61 per
cent of the demand followed by hydro which is around 24 per cent.
Gas-fired power plants have grown in recent years and now account for 6
per cent. Wind and solar power account for around 7 per cent. Nuclear
power accounts for only 3 per cent of the total.
A major focus on renewable energies especially solar and wind would do
much to reduce India’s dependence on fossil fuels, lower its import
bill and also provide a buffer from the vagaries of oil prices.
The Government would have to work swiftly to offer the industry major
financial incentives and cheap funding to popularise solar and wind
energy, apart from other energy-efficient technologies.
Tarun Das, chief mentor of the Confederation of Indian Industry, says:
“Indian industry is committed to moving towards reducing energy
consumption and a low carbon economy and we look forward to working
with the government to do so.”
Across the world there has been a major revival of nuclear power as a
clean energy alternative. Countries like France now meet over 70 per
cent of their electricity demand through nuclear power, substantially
reducing their carbon emissions.
If the Indo-US civil nuclear agreement comes through, it would give
this form of power generation the much-needed boost.
PUSH FOR POLIO DROP-TYPE OF TECHNOLOGY
For developing countries to voluntarily check their emission levels,
the crux is securing clean technology and finance. There are several
promising technologies being developed that could make a dramatic
difference in energy saving.
These include cars that run on hydrogen as fuel, large solar power
plants, carbon capture and sequestration technology and even everyday
items such as energy-efficient light bulbs.
Climate change —India’s worries
* Water resources: Decrease in Himalayan snow cover to affect the
Brahmaputra, the Ganga and the Indus. Glacial melt will impact
long-term lean season flow and generation of hydropower, causing
decline in overall water availability.
* Agriculture and food: Even a 1°C rise in surface temperatures
will see the nation’s wheat production drop by 4-5 million tonne. Small
changes in temperature and rainfall to impact quality of fruits,
vegetables, medicinal plants and rice.
* Health: Changes in the climate may see a surge and spread of
mosquito-related diseases, including malaria, into newer areas. Also,
increase in temperature and humidity can raise the number of months
during which mosquitoes are active.
* Forests: A majority of forest areas are likely to experience a shift
in their types that will result in changes to forest produce, which in
turn will impact livelihoods. Tropical forests may thin out into scrub
jungle in many parts of the country.
* Extreme events: Floods like the one that overwhelmed Mumbai and
violent cyclones will become more frequent. Rising sea levels will see
cities and towns in coastal areas inundated leading to large-scale
migration.
India should join other countries in identifying several such critical
technologies and push for making them available universally at low
prices.
The best example of such a global effort was when polio drops were
distributed at a subsidised price across the world. That saw most
countries being able to afford it in their national health programmes
and resulted in almost eradicating polio from the globe.
India should also push for undertaking joint R&D with other
countries to develop clean technologies. Importantly, developed
countries must be willing to finance such ventures and channelise funds
through UN agencies rather than making it donordriven.
Nitin Desai, former UN under secretary general for climate change,
says: “We must insist that these countries put the money on the table
and make meaningful pledges. The real issue now is not so much command
over oil but command over clean technology.”
CLEAN UP YOUR OWN ACT
Mahatma Gandhi once famously said: “The earth has enough resources to
meet the needs of people but will never have enough to serve their
greed.”
Individuals too can make a major contribution towards reducing India’s
overall emissions and saving the earth by reducing conspicuous
consumption and adopting green measures.
It could be as simple as using less air-conditioners, by wearing more
comfortable Indian clothes like the lungi even to formal dos.
Turning off computers and water heaters when not in use or switching to
energy saving compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) at home. It could even
be telecommuting to get business done rather than driving down or
flying out to meet someone.
Planning your grocery shopping so that you don’t have to drive down
again to buy salt. Insisting on green labels while you buy household
devices such as refrigerators to ensure that these are energy efficient.
There is so much that each one of us could do. As Nobel laureate Al
Gore, speaking at the India Today Conclave in March this year, so
stirringly put it: “We are one people. We live in separate nation
states. We are proud of our differences and we will feel pride in our
nations and in our different creed and beliefs. But ultimately we are
one people on one planet. This is our home. It is endangered. Now is
the time. This is the place. And we are the people who must accept this
challenge. This generation today must become a hero generation. It will
not be easy. It will be hard. Not rising to this challenge would be
much harder still. I believe that we should see the opportunity, rise
to meet it and keep our sights on the obligation that we have for those
who come after. So that a thousand years from now people will say, they
were the ones who did it.”
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