Anyone reading
segments of the Indian press recently would think that science has been
rocked to its foundations by revelations that climate change is
exaggerated and unfounded. This, at least, would be the perception of
those who had read this paper’s news report on a polemic published by
the Civil Society Coalition on Climate Change on April 2, that was
launched by Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission, Montek Singh
Ahluwalia in Delhi.
Nothing could be further from the truth. Climate science is now
well-tested. Leading climate scientists around the world are united in
the assessment that we are experiencing a long-term upward trend in
global temperature largely induced by human activity. Last year marked
the high-water point of the international scientific consensus on the
gravity of climate change with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) issuing its Fourth Assessment Report. Despite bids by
climate nay-sayers such as Saudi Arabia, the US and others with a
vested interest in the do-nothing strategy on climate change to water
down the scientific report, a solid statement emerged from the IPCC:
“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from
observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures,
widespread melting of snow and ice and rising global average sea level”.
Back in 2006, the seminal Exeter conference on climate science hosted
by the British government concluded that we have a decade to start
pulling back before ‘tipping points’ are reached. No less a figure than
Nasa’s top climate scientist James Hansen — the man who first made
headlines with global warming in 1978 and was more recently muzzled by
the George W. Bush administration — said, “We are on the precipice of
climate system tipping points beyond which there is no redemption.”
The inconvenient truth of climate change is that even if everyone were
to stop emitting greenhouse gases tomorrow, we would still be ‘locked
into’ at least 30 to 50 years of warming. More recent research released
by Nasa, the US Institute of Oceanography and others on unstable ice
shelves and the accelerated pace of Arctic ice melt — now projected to
be ice-free in summers in just five to six years — has heightened
concerns among scientists.
Just last month, tenuous theories put forward by sceptics such as solar
rays causing the warming trend were resolutely put paid to by research
published in Britain. Scientists from Lancaster University issued the
latest piece of evidence undermining claims put forward by Henrik
Svensmark of the Danish National Space Centre (DNSC) that modern
climate change is caused by cosmic rays. Professor Terry Sloan, who led
the British research, concluded, “We tried to corroborate Svensmark’s
hypothesis, but we could not; as far as we can see, he has no reason to
challenge the IPCC — the IPCC has got it right. So we had better carry
on trying to cut carbon emissions”. None of this has stopped the
climate sceptics though. In the last week of March, they were out in
full force in Delhi peddling their propaganda. Even this esteemed paper
published a piece — entirely unchallenged — carrying their well-hashed
‘Danish cosmic ray theory’ oblivious of the fact that findings
fundamentally rejecting this had just been published in Britain.
The Civil Society Coalition on Climate Change’s report itself aimed to
“educate the public about the science and economics of climate change”
and concluded that cutting greenhouse gas emissions was not a
cost-effective way to address climate change. It criticised the
‘pressure’ being created by the rich countries on India, China and
other poor countries to sign up to binding emission reduction targets.
Such emission restrictions, apparently, would hold back economic
development in India. Speaker after speaker denounced claims about
human-induced climate change as biased and alarmist, which they said
justified calls for unnecessary economic intervention and regulation.
None of this is new. At the landmark climate talks in Kyoto in 1997,
one had to contend with the well-funded climate deception of the Global
Climate Coalition.
Having failed to win the argument in the West, the climate deniers are
now moving into India and China. They see our country as a soft-touch
for their propaganda and easy to hoodwink through arguments pitting
poverty against development. What they do not realise is that there is
a domestic movement brewing in India for positive action on climate
change. India is already on the frontlines of severe climate impacts.
The PM himself has clearly stated: “The threat of climate change is
real and unless we alter our lifestyles and pursue a sustainable model
of development, our future will be at peril”.
What then was the Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission doing
lending credence to the fringe views of climate deniers? Having trashed
the conclusions of the UN’s respected Human Development Report on
climate change last year, Ahluwalia has chosen to align himself with
some of the most discredited voices on the issue. Pluralism is one
thing — we are all for diversity. But out-and-out propaganda is
another. Claiming that it was time for a “balanced debate” and speaking
of “scientific uncertainty” and “doomsday scenarios”, Ahluwalia has
raised a number of eyebrows. Many of us have higher expectations of our
government. We will be watching this space for greater leadership on
one of the biggest issues of our time.
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