Anthony McMichael heads the International
Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health at the Australian
National University, and is a member of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change.
What are the impacts of climate change
on disease outbreaks?
In the past two decades, we have recorded several changes in disease
outbreaks across the world. When taken together, it seems they tell us
a story about the impacts of climate change.
One can see that malaria [endemic to warmer regions] is now affecting
people living in eastern African highlands. Schistosomiasis, a disease
spread by water snails, too, has moved to China’s northern region. The
snails were not found in the region previously. There are also reports
that oyster poisoning, which occurred occasionally along the northern
Alaskan coast, is becoming common to the region. Since temperature of
the Alaskan water now goes up to 15oC in summers, it provides a
suitable temperature to sustain infection in oyster beds. Studies have
also found a link between the recent cholera outbreaks in Bangladesh
and the fluctuations in the El Nino cycle that warms the country’s
coastal waters.
Do rising temperatures and heat waves
lead to stress?
The issue has been studied mostly in developed countries. What we know
is that with rising temperatures, the number of deaths also goes up.
Most of these deaths, that are attributed to immediate rise in daily
temperature, are caused by heart attacks or respiratory failures. Very
few studies have been done in this connection in developing countries.
Who are more vulnerable?
Elderly people, people suffering from various ailments and poor people
living in low-quality houses are at a higher risk from heat waves. The
Chicago heat wave of 1995 killed several hundreds of people; most of
them were poor, living in small, unventilated apartments.
Some death cases were also reported because of social unrests triggered
by extreme heat. Behavioural disorders were noticed as people locked
themselves in their apartments which got overheated.
What are the other health problems?
Interesting links between climate change and obesity have been observed
among the Inuit people. With rising temperatures, permafrost and sea
ice in the Arctic region are melting at an unprecedented rate. As a
result, a number of species from the region have migrated. It is
becoming increasingly difficult for the Inuit people to depend on their
traditional food sources. Instead, they are depending on processed and
refined food. This also shows how the climate change is disrupting our
food chain.
What are the specific risks for India?
In India, the frequency and severity of heat waves are acute in big
cities. The night temperatures in cities are often 5oC higher than
surrounding countryside during summers. This affects people living in
poor-quality housing societies and slums. Climate change will reduce
food crop yields and dry up water resources. There are predictions that
in eastern Maharashtra, two-three million people are likely to be
displaced by the end of this century due to droughts. Occurrences of
diseases like diarrhoea, cholera, chikungunya and dengue will also
multiply.
What strategies do we need to adapt to
climate change?
The changes are occurring faster than predicted 10 years ago. There is
pressure on us to introduce preventive strategies to reduce the risks,
even though we don’t have a complete understanding of the risks. It is
a rather uncomfortable situation where we are being pushed to take
preventive actions, before conducting all the research.
No doubt, climate change is going to have a huge impact on food yields,
mainly in South Asia. If one takes the increasing population into
consideration, the situation is going to be even worse: the soil will
be more exhausted, aquifers and fresh water supply will dry up. But in
a country like India, where half of the children are already
malnourished, we need to take adaptive strategies towards malnutrition
since climate change will only worsen the problem.
What is the stance of organizations
like WHO and World Bank?
The World Bank has primarily been concerned with issues of economic
development. It's only now that it has realized that other factors like
education and health are equally important for improvement of human
condition.
WHO has been a bit conservative about climate change. This is the first
year that it has come out and said that climate change is important,
which is a big step forward.
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